Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:58 am at Milwaukee); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4705 Southwest	MKE 17:00	MDW 17:50	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2953 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 17:15	MDW 18:05	21%	4%	0.2%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MKE 17:50 → STL 19:10WN 4661	2h 50m St Louis	STL 22:00 → MDW 23:15WN 4099	5h 25m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MKE 11:40 → MCI 13:10WN 1702	3h 00m Kansas City	MCI 16:10 → MDW 17:47WN 2063	6h 07m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MKE 10:25 → BNA 11:55WN 445	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 14:25 → MDW 16:09WN 1724	5h 44m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MKE 08:15 → DCA 11:00WN 311	2h 08m Washington	DCA 13:08 → MDW 14:18WN 2938	6h 03m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	MKE 10:25 → DEN 11:55WN 2944	2h 42m Denver	DEN 14:37 → MDW 18:02WN 1676	7h 37m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	MKE 10:05 → DAL 12:25WN 2939	1h 30m Dallas	DAL 13:55 → MDW 16:13WN 4522	6h 08m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	MKE 13:50 → DEN 15:20WN 2945	2h 15m Denver	DEN 17:35 → MDW 21:00WN 1604	7h 10m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 16m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MKE 15:15 → TPA 18:55WN 588	55m Tampa	TPA 19:50 → MDW 21:39WN 2896	6h 24m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON