Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2006 at 15:59, 23%.

Safest bet today DL 2006 MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest OO 3821 MKE 18:55 → MSP 20:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	23%	5%	0.1%	76%
DL 4462 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:59	MSP 20:29	28%	10%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
OO 3821 SkyWest	MKE 18:55	MSP 20:19	31%	9%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON