Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6358 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 6358 MKE 05:02 → ORD 06:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5653 MKE 19:23 → ORD 20:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6358 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:02	ORD 06:14	9%	4%	0.3%	89%
UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	10%	4%	0.3%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	10%	4%	0.4%	69%
AA 4914 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:01	ORD 07:23	11%	6%	0.3%	83%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	14%	5%	0.3%	89%
UA 5399 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:28	ORD 11:38	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:49	ORD 11:57	17%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 6213 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:25	ORD 08:47	17%	5%	0.3%	80%
AA 6263 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:38	ORD 10:00	18%	7%	0.3%	86%
OO 4984 SkyWest	MKE 11:53	ORD 12:59	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5008 SkyWest	MKE 07:49	ORD 08:48	20%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	20%	6%	0.3%	74%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:26	ORD 15:38	21%	6%	0.7%	65%
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	21%	6%	0.3%	78%
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:11	ORD 13:18	25%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 4748 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 13:30	ORD 14:40	25%	6%	0.7%	64%
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 15:09	ORD 16:11	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:45	ORD 09:44	26%	6%	0.3%	70%
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 15:50	ORD 16:49	27%	7%	0.7%	51%
UA 4726 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 15:11	ORD 16:22	28%	6%	0.7%	60%
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:34	ORD 19:33	31%	8%	0.7%	73%
AA 6211 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:55	ORD 20:29	32%	8%	0.8%	53%
AA 6507 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 19:21	ORD 20:20	33%	7%	0.7%	52%
UA 5653 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 19:23	ORD 20:29	35%	6%	0.8%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON