Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:26 pm at Milwaukee); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 5531 at 18:06 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops today


AA 5531 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 18:06	PHL 21:24	22%	9%	1.7%	86%
AA 710 American Flight history →	MKE 18:03	PHL 21:10	33%	11%	0.7%	43%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 16:47 → DTW 18:59DL 1343	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	5h 29m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	MKE 17:50 → STL 19:10WN 4661	1h 30m St Louis	STL 20:40 → PHL 23:55WN 3966	5h 05m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	6h 28m	97%	71%
United Details →	MKE 14:27 → ORD 15:38UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 52m	90%	67%
Southwest Details →	MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00WN 1369	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 20:45 → PHL 23:54WN 676	6h 24m	98%	65%
United Details →	MKE 19:23 → ORD 20:29UA 5653 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	4h 34m	82%	65%
American Details →	MKE 19:22 → ORD 20:20AA 6507 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	4h 37m	82%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MKE 13:30 → ORD 14:40UA 4748 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 16:18 → PHL 19:35UA 2825	5h 05m	70%	56%
Southwest Details →	MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953	50m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → PHL 21:55WN 4263	3h 40m	63%	47%
American Details →	MKE 19:22 → ORD 20:20AA 6507 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177	4h 00m	55%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON