tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:12 pm at Milwaukee); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2955 Southwest Flight history → MKE 20:25 PHX 22:05 29% 7% 0.1% 76%
WN 250 Southwest MKE 20:00 PHX 21:31 30% 7% 0.1% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953 2h 30m Chicago MDW 20:35 → PHX 22:15WN 2863 7h 00m 99% 62%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 18:35 → DEN 20:20WN 3885 1h 50m Denver DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685 6h 35m 95% 59%
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 6h 58m 87% 58%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:55 → ORD 20:29AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Chicago ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435 8h 01m 96% 58%
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 5544 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Denver DEN 21:05 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 6h 27m 83% 57%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 17:50 → STL 19:10WN 4661 2h 40m St Louis STL 21:50 → PHX 23:05WN 4114 7h 15m 97% 54%
AmericanDetails → MKE 19:22 → ORD 20:20AA 6507 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Chicago ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786 6h 52m 88% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 19:30 → LAS 21:20WN 354 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → PHX 23:26WN 2376 5h 56m 77% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 18:35 → ORD 19:33UA 5420 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 5h 52m 56% 37%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 18:35 → DEN 20:20WN 3885 50m Denver DEN 21:10 → PHX 22:05WN 1684 5h 30m 60% 33%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:03 → PHL 21:10AA 710 50m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → PHX 00:10 +1AA 2622 8h 07m 56% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON