Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3234 at 10:25, 21%.

Safest bet today WN 3234 MKE 10:25 → SAN 12:36 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2956 MKE 14:30 → SAN 16:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3234 Southwest	MKE 10:25	SAN 12:36	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 3784 United	MKE 11:02	SAN 13:35	29%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2956 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 14:30	SAN 16:40	30%	8%	0.2%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MKE 10:25 → DEN 11:55WN 2944	1h 00m Denver	DEN 12:55 → SAN 14:15WN 3503	5h 50m	92%	63%
Southwest Details →	MKE 19:30 → LAS 21:20WN 354	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871	6h 00m	83%	48%
Southwest Details →	MKE 13:50 → DEN 15:20WN 2945	50m Denver	DEN 16:10 → SAN 17:37WN 4263	5h 47m	78%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON