tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:48 am at Milwaukee); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 18:35, 39% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 507 Alaska Flight history → MKE 14:59 SEA 17:24 17% 4% 0.3% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 18:59 → MSP 20:29DL 4462 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 6h 59m 92% 73%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 49m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 6h 53m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → MKE 15:11 → ORD 16:22UA 4726 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SEA 22:56UA 2820 9h 45m 97% 70%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953 3h 55m Chicago MDW 22:00 → SEA 00:35 +1WN 4144 9h 20m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → MKE 15:51 → ORD 16:49UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Chicago ORD 20:32 → SEA 23:04UA 2211 9h 13m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → MKE 12:24 → ORD 12:51UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 8h 42m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 11h 00m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 18:35 → ORD 19:33UA 5420 · flown by SkyWest 59m Chicago ORD 20:32 → SEA 23:04UA 2211 6h 29m 63% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON