tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Milwaukee); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2872 Southwest MKE 17:50 STL 19:17 11% 3% 0.1% no record
WN 4661 Southwest Flight history → MKE 17:50 STL 19:10 12% 3% 0.1% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 17:15 → MDW 18:05WN 2953 3h 59m Chicago MDW 22:04 → STL 23:22WN 1687 6h 07m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → STL 16:46DL 3185 4h 39m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:06DL 2833 7h 08m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:55 → ORD 20:29AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Chicago ORD 23:00 → STL 00:16 +1AA 1004 5h 21m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → MKE 12:24 → ORD 12:51UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Chicago ORD 15:35 → STL 16:54UA 4416 · flown by GoJet 4h 30m 94% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00WN 1369 3h 30m Nashville BNA 21:30 → STL 22:50WN 682 6h 20m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → MKE 13:25 → CLT 16:35AA 2134 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 18:59 → STL 20:03AA 2686 6h 38m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:27 → ORD 15:38UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Chicago ORD 18:42 → STL 19:59UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 5h 32m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 19:23 → ORD 20:29UA 5653 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Chicago ORD 21:30 → STL 22:49UA 4576 · flown by GoJet 3h 26m 69% 56%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:03 → PHL 21:10AA 710 49m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → STL 23:32AA 1368 5h 29m 66% 49%
UnitedDetails → MKE 13:30 → ORD 14:40UA 4748 · flown by SkyWest 55m Chicago ORD 15:35 → STL 16:54UA 4416 · flown by GoJet 3h 24m 60% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON