Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:27 am at Madison); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	MSN 11:07	ATL 14:13	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 2599 Delta Flight history →	MSN 17:00	ATL 20:24	13%	3%	0.5%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 14:45 → MSP 16:01DL 4032 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	7h 59m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 11:44 → ATL 15:23DL 8771	5h 31m	97%	85%
United Details →	MSN 10:43 → ORD 11:56UA 1660	1h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356	5h 27m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	8h 02m	97%	80%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	6h 44m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSN 09:32 → DTW 11:53DL 3671 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	6h 31m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:31 → DTW 15:49DL 844	3h 46m Detroit	DTW 19:35 → ATL 21:44DL 2045	7h 13m	99%	78%
American Details →	MSN 09:41 → ORD 10:53AA 4018 · flown by Envoy	52m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → ATL 14:57AA 4759 · flown by Republic	4h 16m	91%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	4h 45m	70%	54%
American Details →	MSN 17:52 → PHL 21:10AA 5532 · flown by PSA	48m Philadelphia	PHL 21:58 → ATL 00:15 +1AA 443	5h 23m	73%	53%
American Details →	MSN 15:51 → DCA 19:10AA 5599 · flown by PSA	51m Washington	DCA 20:01 → ATL 22:03AA 5502 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	72%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON