Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:22 pm at Madison); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: YX 5849 at 15:15, 26%.

Nonstops today


YX 5849 Republic	MSN 15:15	BOS 18:52	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 15:46	BOS 19:20	28%	11%	0.6%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 20m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	MSN 14:45 → MSP 16:01DL 4032 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	6h 16m	94%	68%
American Details →	MSN 15:38 → ORD 16:47AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	7h 27m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:50 → MSP 19:08DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	5h 05m	91%	67%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:20 → DCA 20:24DL 5645 · flown by Republic	1h 36m Washington	DCA 22:00 → BOS 23:42DL 5633 · flown by Republic	5h 22m	90%	65%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → BOS 23:04UA 1365	6h 18m	98%	61%
American Details →	MSN 13:18 → ORD 14:30AA 3437 · flown by Envoy	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → BOS 19:53AA 4384 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	87%	59%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:31 → DTW 15:49DL 844	2h 09m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	5h 29m	95%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSN 17:52 → PHL 21:10AA 5532 · flown by PSA	48m Philadelphia	PHL 21:58 → BOS 23:18AA 834	4h 26m	73%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON