Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:45 pm at Madison); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5307 at 16:11, 33%.

Nonstops today


AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 16:11	CLT 19:40	33%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 3125 American	MSN 16:19	CLT 19:23	38%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 17:50 → MSP 19:08DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	4h 54m	88%	73%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 58m	95%	72%
American Details →	MSN 15:37 → ORD 16:47AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	5h 22m	97%	72%
American Details →	MSN 14:55 → ORD 16:07AA 3716 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917	5h 04m	86%	66%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	4h 43m	88%	61%
United Details →	MSN 15:18 → DEN 16:45UA 2338	1h 00m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	6h 50m	76%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSN 17:11 → DFW 19:46AA 2141	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409	6h 48m	75%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON