Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:20 pm at Madison); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4523 at 18:25, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 18:25	DCA 21:48	16%	5%	0.6%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 17:50 → MSP 19:08DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	5h 06m	92%	72%
American Details →	MSN 18:43 → ORD 20:13AA 3717 · flown by Envoy	51m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514	4h 31m	79%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON