Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:40 pm at Madison); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YX 5850 at 15:33, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 5850 Republic	MSN 15:33	LGA 19:01	15%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 14:45 → MSP 16:01DL 4032 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	7h 55m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSN 15:46 → BOS 19:20DL 5603 · flown by Republic	2h 40m Boston	BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic	6h 37m	92%	77%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827	6h 40m	98%	73%
American Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 16:13AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679	6h 35m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	5h 59m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	MSN 18:29 → DTW 20:52DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	4h 11m	90%	68%
American Details →	MSN 15:51 → DCA 19:10AA 5599 · flown by PSA	3h 20m Washington	DCA 22:30 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	92%	65%
American Details →	MSN 14:55 → ORD 16:07AA 3716 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 18:28 → LGA 21:49AA 1724	5h 54m	92%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSN 15:18 → DEN 16:45UA 2338	50m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 12m	69%	46%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 17:56 → LGA 21:05UA 2458	4h 19m	65%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON