Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:32 pm at Madison); 7 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 18:43, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSN 18:43 → ORD 20:13AA 3717 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON