Today: YX 4441 at 19:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet today YX 4441 MSN 19:05 → ORD 20:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5586 MSN 18:38 → ORD 19:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 21 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4441 Republic	MSN 19:05	ORD 20:14	14%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 3717 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 18:43	ORD 20:13	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
OO 5586 SkyWest	MSN 18:38	ORD 19:41	26%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON