Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1436 MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OO 5849 MSO 17:27 → DEN 19:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1436 United Flight history →	MSO 14:25	DEN 16:30	15%	9%	0.1%	79%
UA 5632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 17:20	DEN 19:40	21%	7%	0.4%	60%
OO 5849 SkyWest	MSO 17:27	DEN 19:48	22%	7%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON