tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:38 am at Missoula); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 362 at 15:28, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 362 Delta Flight history → MSO 15:28 MSP 19:05 11% 4% 0.2% 85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803 5h 26m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:05 → SLC 14:45DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 6h 49m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 07m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 2h 15m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 6h 25m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 5h 39m 87% 66%
AmericanDetails → MSO 14:09 → DFW 18:39AA 2144 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 8h 48m 92% 59%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:18AS 660 2h 22m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:56AS 527 7h 07m 97% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MSO 17:00 → SEA 17:41AS 697 59m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386 5h 59m 71% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON