Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Missoula); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:28, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563	5h 24m	92%	71%
United Details →	MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649	6h 24m	90%	69%
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	58m San Francisco	SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:57 +1UA 1958	7h 38m	79%	57%
Alaska Details →	MSO 15:50 → SEA 16:18AS 660	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	7h 09m	87%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON