Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3808 MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 148 MSO 18:12 → SLC 19:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3808 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 18:27	SLC 20:09	10%	5%	0.3%	91%
DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 13:05	SLC 14:45	11%	6%	0.2%	95%
OO 148 SkyWest	MSO 18:12	SLC 19:53	11%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON