tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:01 am at Minneapolis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 13:36, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 411 Delta Flight history → MSP 22:13 ANC 00:59 21% 4% 0.1% 73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:10 ANC 21:00 23% 4% 0.1% 66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Dulles IAD 17:43 → ANC 21:21UA 2073 12h 04m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 11h 22m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519 2h 56m Detroit DTW 18:35 → ANC 21:20DL 1134 11h 25m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 19:59 → SEA 21:57AS 532 2h 02m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363 9h 41m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:45AA 3719 · flown by Envoy 1h 15m Chicago ORD 17:00 → ANC 20:52AA 1354 9h 50m 90% 72%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 18:17 → PDX 20:07AS 1434 1h 23m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 9h 08m 93% 72%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 19:23 → SEA 20:59AS 510 1h 53m Seattle SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703 9h 13m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:08 → ORD 14:53UA 5570 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 16:00 → ANC 19:35UA 461 9h 27m 84% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → ANC 22:39AA 395 10h 28m 74% 50%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 19:23 → SEA 20:59AS 510 58m Seattle SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560 8h 18m 68% 50%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 19:59 → SEA 21:57AS 532 55m Seattle SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703 8h 37m 65% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON