Today: OO 4608 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet today OO 4608 MSP 08:57 → ATW 10:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4009 MSP 21:47 → ATW 23:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4608 SkyWest	MSP 08:57	ATW 10:16	8%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3861 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:20	ATW 15:30	16%	6%	0.2%	77%
OO 3983 SkyWest	MSP 14:22	ATW 15:39	16%	6%	0.2%	no record
OO 4009 SkyWest	MSP 21:47	ATW 23:04	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 4951 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:32	ATW 10:47	15%	9%	0.0%	85%
DL 4920 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 21:45	ATW 22:58	33%	12%	5.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON