Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:43 pm at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2941 at 22:20, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2941 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:20	BIL 23:30	21%	7%	0.1%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → BIL 21:05AA 3937 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	84%	73%
United Details →	MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272	2h 53m Denver	DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:25 → BIL 22:50DL 1340	5h 37m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON