Today: DL 2724 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet today DL 2724 MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2962 MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	5%	2%	0.2%	90%
WN 1528 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 07:05	BNA 09:10	5%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 3069 Southwest	MSP 07:15	BNA 09:24	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BNA 14:52	11%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 1144 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	BNA 22:26	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:29	BNA 17:35	16%	4%	0.2%	79%
WN 4614 Southwest	MSP 16:15	BNA 18:23	19%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2962 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 16:00	BNA 18:00	20%	5%	0.2%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON