Today: DL 2304 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet today DL 2304 MSP 08:50 → BOI 10:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2488 MSP 21:40 → BOI 23:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2304 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:50	BOI 10:57	7%	2%	0.1%	89%
DL 2982 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:39	BOI 13:44	11%	3%	0.1%	86%
DL 2488 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	BOI 23:46	20%	4%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON