Today: DL 2655 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet today DL 2655 MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1502 MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2655 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	BOS 13:51	14%	3%	0.2%	82%
DL 2614 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:09	BOS 23:55	19%	6%	0.7%	79%
DL 2558 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BOS 16:50	20%	4%	0.2%	70%
DL 2591 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	BOS 19:11	22%	7%	0.2%	67%
DL 1502 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	BOS 22:01	28%	8%	0.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON