Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3658 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3658 MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2963 MSP 18:00 → BWI 21:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3658 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 05:25	BWI 08:50	4%	1%	0.3%	100%
WN 1178 Southwest	MSP 06:15	BWI 09:46	4%	1%	0.3%	no record
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	BWI 10:42	5%	1%	0.3%	93%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:41	BWI 18:15	10%	3%	0.7%	63%
WN 1065 Southwest	MSP 14:55	BWI 18:25	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2918 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	BWI 23:13	14%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 2963 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 18:00	BWI 21:25	23%	5%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON