Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1083 MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1392 MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1083 Delta	MSP 07:11	CLE 10:10	6%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 2057 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	CLE 12:52	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2847 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:08	CLE 09:58	7%	2%	0.2%	94%
DL 1118 Delta	MSP 15:38	CLE 18:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1449 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:39	CLE 18:31	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:51	CLE 23:44	13%	3%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON