Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2819 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2819 MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2140 MSP 17:57 → CLT 21:22 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:30	CLT 13:57	7%	2%	0.7%	79%
DL 1912 Delta	MSP 07:13	CLT 10:40	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
DL 1827 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	CLT 10:24	9%	3%	0.4%	85%
AA 894 American Flight history →	MSP 06:19	CLT 10:00	9%	4%	0.4%	92%
AA 2154 American Flight history →	MSP 10:56	CLT 14:36	10%	3%	1.3%	87%
DL 2821 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	CLT 18:49	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 2929 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:14	CLT 23:44	10%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 1737 American	MSP 09:53	CLT 13:18	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2153 American Flight history →	MSP 13:39	CLT 17:23	13%	4%	1.3%	84%
AA 1671 American	MSP 14:00	CLT 17:33	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2151 American Flight history →	MSP 17:47	CLT 21:29	19%	5%	1.3%	62%
AA 2140 American Flight history →	MSP 17:57	CLT 21:22	24%	5%	1.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON