Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 954 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 954 MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 703 MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:14	CVG 10:03	5%	2%	0.2%	89%
DL 3113 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	CVG 15:39	10%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1469 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	CVG 23:11	12%	2%	0.7%	78%
OO 3733 SkyWest	MSP 12:53	CVG 15:46	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:50	CVG 18:37	16%	2%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON