Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1525 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1525 MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 1149 MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:32 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1525 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 05:50	DEN 06:55	2%	1%	0.5%	100%
WN 4384 Southwest	MSP 05:57	DEN 06:59	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2041 United Flight history →	MSP 05:45	DEN 06:53	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 1675 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	DEN 08:06	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 401 United	MSP 11:29	DEN 12:54	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	DEN 10:03	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 1891 United Flight history →	MSP 09:05	DEN 10:21	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2927 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DEN 12:05	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	MSP 13:36	DEN 14:48	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 447 Southwest	MSP 09:47	DEN 10:49	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1025 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:27	DEN 15:30	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 4758 Southwest	MSP 11:07	DEN 12:09	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1705 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:27	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 2830 Southwest	MSP 12:47	DEN 13:48	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4346 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 11:35	DEN 12:35	13%	2%	0.5%	70%
WN 2967 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 13:50	DEN 14:55	13%	2%	0.5%	75%
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	DEN 19:56	15%	3%	0.6%	66%
UA 467 United Flight history →	MSP 18:23	DEN 19:45	15%	4%	0.6%	57%
UA 2272 United Flight history →	MSP 16:51	DEN 18:17	16%	3%	0.6%	65%
F9 1291 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 06:58	DEN 08:08	16%	3%	0.8%	76%
F9 3199 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 13:16	DEN 14:30	16%	6%	0.8%	87%
WN 3063 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 19:00	DEN 20:10	19%	3%	0.5%	34%
F9 1149 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:32	23%	6%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON