Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1395 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1395 MSP 05:49 → DFW 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3223 MSP 17:09 → DFW 19:47 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 05:49	DFW 08:18	6%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 1251 American Flight history →	MSP 05:00	DFW 07:34	7%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 2150 American Flight history →	MSP 06:02	DFW 08:40	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:03	DFW 12:29	9%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	12%	4%	0.5%	76%
AA 1654 American	MSP 08:05	DFW 10:48	12%	3%	2.1%	no record
AA 2152 American Flight history →	MSP 10:34	DFW 13:05	15%	4%	1.8%	83%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	MSP 10:26	DFW 13:03	15%	4%	1.3%	80%
DL 2971 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:47	DFW 17:16	15%	3%	0.5%	76%
F9 1455 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 12:35	DFW 15:10	20%	9%	0.7%	77%
AA 2148 American Flight history →	MSP 19:15	DFW 21:50	22%	6%	1.2%	56%
AA 2145 American Flight history →	MSP 15:11	DFW 17:50	22%	6%	1.3%	60%
AA 1668 American	MSP 15:28	DFW 18:09	22%	6%	1.8%	no record
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 17:09	DFW 19:47	27%	11%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON