Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1246 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1246 MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2866 MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1246 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	EWR 09:40	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 1870 United	MSP 06:05	EWR 09:38	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	EWR 10:49	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:14	EWR 12:56	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 2232 United	MSP 10:16	EWR 14:01	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1637 United Flight history →	MSP 10:14	EWR 14:00	14%	6%	0.7%	83%
DL 2846 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	EWR 23:56	16%	7%	0.7%	73%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:10	EWR 17:53	25%	9%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON