tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:13 am at Minneapolis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kalispell on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic 1h 40m Chicago ORD 09:45 → FCA 12:46AA 1833 7h 36m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 86% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 56m Chicago ORD 08:40 → FCA 11:29UA 2333 6h 29m 92% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246 8h 06m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:50 → DFW 08:17AA 1395 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:10 → FCA 11:43AA 1845 6h 53m 93% 67%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:00 → SFO 09:12UA 1808 2h 48m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → FCA 15:30UA 5577 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 100% 66%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → FCA 14:57AA 1842 9h 55m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 59m Chicago ORD 13:15 → FCA 16:09AA 1844 6h 38m 92% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON