Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3763 MSP 11:06 → FSD 12:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3578 MSP 18:30 → FSD 19:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3763 SkyWest	MSP 11:06	FSD 12:15	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3534 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 11:38	FSD 12:49	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 3561 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 09:05	FSD 10:15	11%	4%	0.3%	94%
OO 3888 SkyWest	MSP 09:18	FSD 10:27	12%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	MSP 14:35	FSD 15:44	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3538 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:36	FSD 15:41	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
DL 1694 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:05	FSD 23:06	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
OO 3905 SkyWest	MSP 18:34	FSD 19:43	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3578 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:30	FSD 19:36	19%	5%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON