Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2437 MSP 12:19 → GEG 13:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2418 MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2437 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:19	GEG 13:21	12%	2%	0.1%	89%
DL 1853 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:30	GEG 11:39	14%	2%	0.1%	89%
DL 2418 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	GEG 23:06	19%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON