Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3678 MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 3783 MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3678 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 17:05	IAD 20:43	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 3695 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 12:17	IAD 15:50	8%	3%	0.7%	100%
UA 2169 United	MSP 12:01	IAD 15:44	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3699 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:17	IAD 10:46	14%	6%	0.3%	88%
DL 4129 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 19:50	IAD 23:20	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 3783 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:30	IAD 18:04	16%	5%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON