Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2656 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2656 MSP 07:05 → IAH 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 283 MSP 17:42 → IAH 20:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2656 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	IAH 09:59	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	MSP 07:35	IAH 10:30	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2673 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	IAH 13:14	13%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2644 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:45	IAH 17:39	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2683 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:40	IAH 21:35	14%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 1795 United Flight history →	MSP 12:05	IAH 15:00	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 283 United Flight history →	MSP 17:42	IAH 20:37	18%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON