Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2456 MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 674 MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2456 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:50	IND 11:28	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2910 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:55	IND 15:33	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1456 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:45	IND 18:22	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 674 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	IND 00:16	11%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON