Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:05 pm at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3925 at 18:50, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3925 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:50	JAC 20:29	21%	6%	0.2%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	2h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	6h 12m	98%	81%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	1h 32m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	5h 17m	96%	76%
United Details →	MSP 13:08 → ORD 14:53UA 5570 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 16:21 → JAC 18:42UA 378	6h 34m	88%	71%
United Details →	MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272	1h 02m Denver	DEN 19:19 → JAC 21:03UA 785	5h 12m	79%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON