tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:59 am at Minneapolis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2392 at 12:57, 22%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2392 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:57 JAX 16:54 22% 3% 0.5% 85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45WN 2971 1h 35m Chicago MDW 19:20 → JAX 22:40WN 2792 5h 25m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:45AA 3719 · flown by Envoy 3h 44m Chicago ORD 19:29 → JAX 23:05AA 2096 8h 03m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:08 → ORD 14:53UA 5570 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m Chicago ORD 18:19 → JAX 21:59UA 2443 7h 51m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 1h 19m Denver DEN 16:07 → JAX 21:40UA 1485 7h 04m 94% 68%
UnitedDetails → MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic 2h 03m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 6h 51m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic 1h 28m Chicago ORD 19:27 → JAX 22:52AA 716 5h 49m 94% 62%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00WN 2962 2h 50m Nashville BNA 20:50 → JAX 23:29WN 4631 6h 29m 99% 61%
AmericanDetails → MSP 13:39 → CLT 17:23AA 2153 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 20:30 → JAX 21:54AA 1889 7h 15m 96% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON