Today: DL 2261 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet today DL 2261 MSP 07:05 → LAS 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4745 MSP 19:50 → LAS 21:18 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	LAS 08:25	6%	2%	0.2%	89%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:13	LAS 10:31	8%	3%	0.2%	85%
DL 2246 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:59	LAS 20:20	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	LAS 12:26	14%	4%	0.2%	83%
DL 1442 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:55	LAS 23:14	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:51	LAS 16:10	15%	4%	0.2%	86%
F9 4745 Frontier	MSP 19:50	LAS 21:18	25%	9%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MSP 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 4346	52m Denver	DEN 13:27 → LAS 14:22WN 1637	4h 47m	78%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON