Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2110 MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2103 MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2110 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	LAX 09:00	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2119 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:30	LAX 13:23	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2102 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:20	LAX 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2974 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:10	LAX 14:59	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1651 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:02	LAX 14:54	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 2114 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:45	LAX 17:35	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2122 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:59	LAX 20:51	15%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2103 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	LAX 23:53	16%	3%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	55m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	5h 30m	95%	81%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	55m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	5h 39m	91%	74%
Southwest Details →	MSP 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 4346	1h 11m Denver	DEN 13:46 → LAX 15:13WN 1645	5h 38m	95%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON