Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:55 pm at Minneapolis); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2309 at 19:45, 28%.

Nonstops today


DL 2309 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	MCO 23:58	28%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 1885 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:30	MCO 20:02	33%	9%	0.5%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45WN 2971	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 20:55 → MCO 00:35 +1WN 2821	7h 20m	99%	76%
American Details →	MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:45AA 3719 · flown by Envoy	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40AA 3176	7h 38m	100%	72%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 20:19 → MCO 00:05 +1UA 617	7h 49m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	8h 40m	88%	69%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00WN 2962	3h 03m Nashville	BNA 21:03 → MCO 00:02 +1WN 642	7h 02m	98%	64%
United Details →	MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Dulles	IAD 22:56 → MCO 01:15 +1UA 689	7h 10m	97%	62%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	8h 30m	89%	61%
Southwest Details →	MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10WN 2974	50m St Louis	STL 20:00 → MCO 23:30WN 3950	4h 50m	75%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00WN 2962	55m Nashville	BNA 18:55 → MCO 21:54WN 1088	4h 54m	70%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON