Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3989 MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 4035 MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3989 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 09:10	MEM 11:28	11%	4%	0.2%	87%
DL 4063 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 15:45	MEM 17:52	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 4035 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 20:05	MEM 22:15	18%	5%	0.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON