Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1870 MSP 06:00 → MIA 10:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2187 MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1870 American Flight history →	MSP 06:00	MIA 10:50	7%	3%	0.4%	94%
DL 2129 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	MIA 13:37	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 793 Delta	MSP 09:06	MIA 13:41	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2187 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:53	MIA 23:35	15%	5%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON