tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 am at Minneapolis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2006 MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 3738 MSP 19:47 → MKE 21:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2006 Delta Flight history → MSP 13:54 MKE 15:09 9% 2% 0.7% 83%
DL 4466 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 07:41 MKE 08:58 15% 5% 0.3% 83%
DL 561 Delta Flight history → MSP 10:05 MKE 11:17 15% 3% 0.2% 80%
OO 3804 SkyWest MSP 07:53 MKE 09:12 15% 5% 0.3% no record
OO 3821 SkyWest MSP 16:59 MKE 18:19 16% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 4464 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 18:10 MKE 19:31 16% 4% 0.7% 83%
OO 3848 SkyWest MSP 18:05 MKE 19:25 16% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 4468 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 20:20 MKE 21:41 16% 4% 0.7% 82%
DL 4462 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 16:58 MKE 18:16 17% 4% 0.7% 80%
OO 3738 SkyWest MSP 19:47 MKE 21:06 18% 4% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON