Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:34 am at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 362 at 12:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops today


DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSO 14:38	17%	3%	0.1%	86%
DL 2610 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:52	MSO 23:44	30%	6%	0.1%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723	7h 15m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	8h 59m	99%	76%
United Details →	MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272	1h 13m Denver	DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092	5h 48m	87%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON