Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 188 MSP 15:32 → OMA 16:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4024 MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 188 SkyWest	MSP 15:32	OMA 16:53	23%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 3948 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 15:29	OMA 16:49	24%	7%	0.2%	76%
DL 4014 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 21:30	OMA 22:48	26%	8%	0.2%	67%
DL 4024 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:25	OMA 19:47	28%	8%	0.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON