Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4444 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4444 MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3133 MSP 15:38 → ORD 17:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4444 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 06:10	ORD 08:05	4%	2%	0.2%	93%
UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	5%	2%	0.2%	92%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 567 United Flight history →	MSP 07:34	ORD 09:18	7%	3%	0.5%	72%
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	8%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:14	ORD 14:59	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 10:42	ORD 12:20	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 14:02	ORD 15:45	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1929 United Flight history →	MSP 09:47	ORD 11:29	8%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 2211 American	MSP 05:22	ORD 06:56	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 16:03	ORD 17:59	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	9%	4%	0.5%	73%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	9%	3%	0.5%	72%
UA 2773 United	MSP 08:01	ORD 09:34	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	10%	4%	0.5%	71%
AA 4465 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 18:02	ORD 20:10	10%	4%	0.7%	80%
MQ 4001 Envoy	MSP 09:09	ORD 10:41	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:41	ORD 11:14	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 658 United Flight history →	MSP 17:13	ORD 19:00	14%	6%	0.5%	57%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:45	ORD 19:30	15%	5%	0.5%	61%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	16%	5%	0.5%	55%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	ORD 16:59	16%	4%	0.6%	57%
UA 5570 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:08	ORD 14:53	16%	6%	0.6%	67%
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	17%	5%	0.5%	68%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:41	ORD 20:30	20%	9%	0.7%	56%
AA 3131 American	MSP 14:17	ORD 15:51	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 424 United	MSP 16:52	ORD 18:25	24%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 3133 American	MSP 15:38	ORD 17:12	27%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON