Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1661 MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 332 MSP 18:07 → PDX 19:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1661 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:59	PDX 12:37	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2167 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	PDX 12:38	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2415 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	PDX 10:41	6%	1%	0.2%	89%
DL 2008 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:58	PDX 17:35	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2391 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:38	PDX 23:18	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 1434 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 18:17	PDX 20:07	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2151 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:34	PDX 20:15	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
AS 332 Alaska	MSP 18:07	PDX 19:49	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON